Germany seemed poised to dominate solar. Yet it was Chinese solar firms who used German equipment to make solar cells and modules to sell back to Germany's subsidized market. What happened?
I wonder how much does learning curve play here. At the end of the day, it is a function of demand and especially domestic demand. China now installs nearly half of global solar every single year and the scale is tremendous. And there are many favourable conditions for China the scale up.
Most of this story transpired during the era of super low interest rates. Now that rates are up to normal levels and will never return to <2% long term, the near infinite subsidies and capital investment will rapidly diminish. Look at the pressure private equity funds are under to generate cash at 6+%. The Chinese government (especially the LGTVs) and all governments will have to greatly reduce the subsidies which has driven everything the past 15 years.
Not so much a paradox as a mis-allocated weighting between invention, initiation, improvement and implementation (doing), and iterative (cost curve) aspects of innovation. Western cultures are very stuck on invention and initiation by (typically) some identifiable hero genius persona as the end-all-and-be-all of innovation, but large scale collective implementation and iteration are where the most effort, risk and ingenuity is required to accomplish real world outcomes.
Has the the solar market "crash" been well-defined in terms of time period and main drivers? To me it seems like the adoption for solar has only been going down since the early 2000s.
I wonder how much does learning curve play here. At the end of the day, it is a function of demand and especially domestic demand. China now installs nearly half of global solar every single year and the scale is tremendous. And there are many favourable conditions for China the scale up.
Surely cheaper energy costs in China gave them a significant competitive advantage in what is a very energy intensive industry?
Most of this story transpired during the era of super low interest rates. Now that rates are up to normal levels and will never return to <2% long term, the near infinite subsidies and capital investment will rapidly diminish. Look at the pressure private equity funds are under to generate cash at 6+%. The Chinese government (especially the LGTVs) and all governments will have to greatly reduce the subsidies which has driven everything the past 15 years.
Not so much a paradox as a mis-allocated weighting between invention, initiation, improvement and implementation (doing), and iterative (cost curve) aspects of innovation. Western cultures are very stuck on invention and initiation by (typically) some identifiable hero genius persona as the end-all-and-be-all of innovation, but large scale collective implementation and iteration are where the most effort, risk and ingenuity is required to accomplish real world outcomes.
Has the the solar market "crash" been well-defined in terms of time period and main drivers? To me it seems like the adoption for solar has only been going down since the early 2000s.