Give China a few years, and they will develop an export control more robust, and effective than USA. If there is one thing, I have learned reading about China, they actually tend to learn from their mistakes. On the contrary, post- 2016 Washington's policy has been one of flip-flop, and now it has been reduced to the whims of God-Emperor Trump.
No no, you got it wrong. China wants to prevent RE from being used by US military to attack China. That is sufficient explanation. Apply Occam’s razor. All other motives you imply into China is just projection. 😀
This was a great overview of China’s progression. I do think, however, that your interpretation of America’s export control enforcement regime is overly generous. Recent research has found that the BIS is severely underfunded and has serious IT and data management problems that undermine its effectiveness. And it’s not just Nvidia chips slipping through the cracks. Available evidence indicates widespread evasion across various categories of controlled goods (particularly to Russia). Comparing both countries’ enforcement capabilities is fascinating and raises all sorts of questions about how different regime types might perform. But it may be a question of not who can do it well but rather who can fail the least.
Chinese export controls are here to stay. Trump will accept this and say that Xi personally promised him no delays in rare earths! Sigh, I wish Jon Huntsman was President.
Give China a few years, and they will develop an export control more robust, and effective than USA. If there is one thing, I have learned reading about China, they actually tend to learn from their mistakes. On the contrary, post- 2016 Washington's policy has been one of flip-flop, and now it has been reduced to the whims of God-Emperor Trump.
Great work, Kyle. Keep it up!
No no, you got it wrong. China wants to prevent RE from being used by US military to attack China. That is sufficient explanation. Apply Occam’s razor. All other motives you imply into China is just projection. 😀
🎯
This was a great overview of China’s progression. I do think, however, that your interpretation of America’s export control enforcement regime is overly generous. Recent research has found that the BIS is severely underfunded and has serious IT and data management problems that undermine its effectiveness. And it’s not just Nvidia chips slipping through the cracks. Available evidence indicates widespread evasion across various categories of controlled goods (particularly to Russia). Comparing both countries’ enforcement capabilities is fascinating and raises all sorts of questions about how different regime types might perform. But it may be a question of not who can do it well but rather who can fail the least.
Chinese export controls are here to stay. Trump will accept this and say that Xi personally promised him no delays in rare earths! Sigh, I wish Jon Huntsman was President.
Great piece but for the record, the 2010 rare earth export cuts were NOT due to the Japan fishing boats incident! altho they were perceived that way.